Chart Of The Day

CFK - Wedge - Go Long

2007-07-23T06:54:00.000-06:00

Symbol: CFK
[X] Entry
Duration: 3 Months
Direction: Go Long

CFK is in the Industrial Equipment sector which continues to be bullish (see the cube rating below). It has been inching up lately to a potential breakout area and with earnings around the corner, that may be the impetus to spring forward. The volume flows are positive and although I've taken an intial entry, unless I get a pop before earnings, I'll likely be careful and use this as the first scale in if it remains positive. .

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Symbol = CFK Exchange = Russell
Sector = Industrial Equip Wholesle
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FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 0.00%
Earnings Date = 2007/7/30
Beta = 0.51
PE = 12.1
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 43800

Institutional
Buying = 1527 Selling = 829 Holdings = 28.8%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.35
Previous Quarter = 0.30
2 Quarters Ago = 0.48
3 Quarters Ago = 0.22
4 Quarters Ago = 0.50
Percent Change Last = +18.22
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR Russell
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bullish Sideways Bearish
3 Months Sideways Bullish Sideways
6 Months Bullish Bullish Sideways
12 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish

DD - Breakout - Go Long

2007-07-18T21:42:00.000-06:00

Symbol: DD
[X] Entry
Duration: 3 Months
Direction: Go Long

DD is a large cap stock in the DJIA which is benefiting from international exposure. It trades in the Chemicals sector and has been base building for months now. It looks primed to break out and is worth taking a hard look at before it breaks topside. Earnings are up in a few days and I don't know that it will wait on earnings to do its thing. .

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Symbol = DD Exchange = DJIA
Sector = Agricultural Chemicals
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FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 2.04%
Earnings Date = 2007/07/24
Beta = 1.17
PE = 15.2
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 5013700

Institutional
Buying = 59155 Selling = 39924 Holdings = 68.4%

EPS Current Quarter = 1.02
Previous Quarter = 0.95
2 Quarters Ago = 0.52
3 Quarters Ago = 1.06
4 Quarters Ago = 0.88
Percent Change Last = +8.11
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR DJIA
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Bearish Bullish
3 Months Sideways Bullish Bullish
6 Months Sideways Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish

IAG - Broken Trend Line - Go Long

2007-07-18T21:41:00.000-06:00

Symbol: IAG
[X] Entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Long

IAG is in the precious metals sector. I've featured a few of these lately and this is another one that looks primed to run. Look at the nice volume spikes of late; the broken down trend line; the flag/wedge formation currently and the resistance lines being another $1 to $1.75 higher. Can't help but point out a sector that's both working and a lot safer than most in this market environment. .

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Symbol = IAG Exchange = SPX
Sector = Gold
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 1.68%
Earnings Date = 2007/08/15
Beta = 0.65
PE = 26.4
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 1142300

Institutional
Buying = 34412 Selling = 27762 Holdings = 51.8%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.04
Previous Quarter = 0.04
2 Quarters Ago = 0.08
3 Quarters Ago = 0.17
4 Quarters Ago = 0.13
Percent Change Last = +2.00
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bullish Bullish Bullish
3 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
6 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish

GLD - Wedge - Go Long

2007-07-18T05:51:00.000-06:00

Symbol: GLD
[X] Entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Long

GLD is in the ETF for gold in the precious metals sector. A year and a half ago, gold pushed to a high of $730 or so and since then has built out a huge upward sloping wedge formation. Lately prices have been very sticky as there is no willingness to sell any longer. That stick behavior and the fact that several o fthe metals stocks have taken out key swing points on volume suggests that a further rise is likely to unfold. Buying some here in anticipation of the next move is not a bad idea as long as you keep in mind what time frame you are working on with the trade..

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Symbol = GLD Exchange = SPX
Sector = Closed-End Fund - Equity
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 0.00%
Earnings Date = No Date Set
Beta = 0.00
PE = 39.6
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 4963900

Institutional
Buying = 0 Selling = 0 Holdings = 0.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.52
Previous Quarter = -0.02
2 Quarters Ago = 0.24
3 Quarters Ago = 0.91
4 Quarters Ago = 0.03
Percent Change Last = +999.00
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Sideways Bullish
3 Months Sideways Sideways Bullish
6 Months Sideways Sideways Bullish
12 Months Bullish Sideways Bullish
24 Months Bullish Sideways Bullish

PAAS - Breakout - Go Long

2007-07-17T06:41:00.000-06:00

Symbol: PAAS
[X] Entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Long

PAAS is in the precious metals sector. It has been working to break above the swing point at the $29.45 area for the past few days. A break there will lead to a momentum move back to the highs. It looks to be a matter of time. It still could retrace back down into the range here so it's a speculative buy at this juncture. Stochastic is overbought so we may pull back once more before we take it out convincingly. If you set your time frames from 3-6 months though, it looks to be a winner. .

The precious metals sector is supportive of a move gain, the general market as well and the stock itself is gaining strength looking at the Cube readings. Short interest is also reasonably high for a stock of this size.

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Symbol = PAAS Exchange = NASDAQ
Sector = Silver
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 3.38%
Earnings Date = 2007/08/13
Beta = 0.68
PE = 28.1
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 1137000

Institutional
Buying = 6012 Selling = 5109 Holdings = 40.5%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.27
Previous Quarter = 0.39
2 Quarters Ago = 0.22
3 Quarters Ago = 0.21
4 Quarters Ago = -0.04
Percent Change Last = -33.09
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull X MA MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR NASDAQ
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Bullish Bullish
3 Months Sideways Bearish Bullish
6 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish

UCO - Gap - Go Long

2007-07-16T07:12:00.000-06:00

Symbol: UCO
[X] Entry
Duration: 3 Months
Direction: Go Long

UCO is in the Oil and Gas Equipment services sector and recently scored a gap up move which is holding. That sets up another attack at higher highs so I've taken a position in preparation for that move. General market is likely due for a pull back near term and that could cap any gains, but an entry position in this area is a likely good one assuming that the gap can hold on a near term basis. The Trading Cube also shows an almost picture perfert long position here

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Symbol = UCO Exchange = SPX
Sector = Oil & Gas Equipment/Svcs
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 11.72%
Earnings Date = 2007/8/6
Beta = 0.99
PE = 30.5
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 452500

Institutional
Buying = 5723 Selling = 4128 Holdings = 95.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.48
Previous Quarter = 0.66
2 Quarters Ago = 0.83
3 Quarters Ago = 0.73
4 Quarters Ago = 0.70
Percent Change Last = -27.60
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bullish Bullish Bullish
3 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
6 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Sideways Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish

DEO - Wedge - Go Long

2007-07-13T06:04:00.001-06:00

Symbol: DEO
[X] Entry
Duration: 3 Months
Direction: Go Long

DEO is in the beverages sector and after a long period of consolidation, yesterday it showed strength once more. In a bullish market I am looking for stocks that look relatively safe in the time frame we are trading them that can be pulled higher by the rising tide of higher prices in general. This looks like a decent candidate although I would be more interested if the sector showed more strength (see the cube below). As a result, this will be a smaller position.

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Symbol = DEO Exchange = SPX
Sector = Beverages-Winery/Distlers
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 0.05%
Earnings Date = No Date Set
Beta = 0.05
PE = 20.4
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 526600

Institutional
Buying = 12783 Selling = 11221 Holdings = 15.4%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.36
Previous Quarter = 0.15
2 Quarters Ago = 0.35
3 Quarters Ago = 0.18
4 Quarters Ago = 0.31
Percent Change Last = +147.55
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bear X Up

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Bearish Bullish
3 Months Sideways Sideways Bullish
6 Months Sideways Bearish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish

JSDA - Trend Line Break - Go Long

2007-07-12T05:51:00.000-06:00

Symbol: JSDA
[X] Entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Long

JSDA is in the beverages sector and after a very hard correction it is starting to look very promising again. The chart shows a trend line break and with short interest at 30%, it could be a huge move when the shorts come home to roost.

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Symbol = JSDA Exchange = NASDAQ
Sector = Beverages-Soft Drinks
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 29.77%
Earnings Date = 2007/7/30
Beta = 0.96
PE = 92.3
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 2192100

Institutional
Buying = 2686 Selling = 3461 Holdings = 36.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.00
Previous Quarter = 0.08
2 Quarters Ago = 0.01
3 Quarters Ago = 0.10
4 Quarters Ago = 0.00
Percent Change Last = -97.22
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull X MA MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR NASDAQ
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bullish Sideways Bullish
3 Months Bearish Sideways Bullish
6 Months Bullish Sideways Bullish
12 Months Bullish Sideways Bullish
24 Months Bullish Sideways Bullish

Gone Fishing

2007-06-27T07:57:00.000-06:00

Time pressures are not allowing me to post here currently. It could be this way for a couple weeks; so gone fishing for a little while. Look back here in a couple weeks for us to start afresh.

CVS - Gap - Go Long

2007-06-25T21:19:00.000-06:00

Symbol: CVS
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Long

CVS is in the drug store sector. It has been selling down since making a high about 3 weeks past and is coming back on light volume towards the breakout gap area around $35.50 which should provide a good snap back rally area if we keep coming straight on down.

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Symbol = CVS Exchange = SPX
Sector = Drug Stores
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 8.10%
Earnings Date = 2007/08/2
Beta = 0.99
PE = 22.2
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 16580400

Institutional
Buying = 691778 Selling = 48964 Holdings = 85.5%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.45
Previous Quarter = 0.50
2 Quarters Ago = 0.34
3 Quarters Ago = 0.41
4 Quarters Ago = 0.40
Percent Change Last = -10.84
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bearish Bearish Bearish
3 Months Sideways Sideways Sideways
6 Months Sideways Sideways Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish

TAP - Retrace - Go Long

2007-06-22T06:30:00.000-06:00

Symbol: TAP
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Long

TAP is in the Beverages-Brewers sector. Although I like the chart long term, I'll likely trade it short term for a retest of the +93 area. It has a nice setup of a break higher back in February that was retested earlier this month and volume spiking after that retest. Now a slight retrace on light volume makes a buy possible. Stop out is below yesterday's lows on a closing basis.

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Symbol = TAP Exchange = SPX
Sector = Beverages-Brewers
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 3.17%
Earnings Date = 2007/08/7
Beta = 0.95
PE = 19.3
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 916500

Institutional
Buying = 19273 Selling = 11205 Holdings = 70.5%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.22
Previous Quarter = 1.30
2 Quarters Ago = 1.42
3 Quarters Ago = 1.83
4 Quarters Ago = -0.22
Percent Change Last = -83.21
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Bullish Sideways
3 Months Bearish Bullish Sideways
6 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish

MRK - Gap - Go Long

2007-06-21T05:35:00.000-06:00

Symbol: MRK
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Long

MRK is in the drug sector. After a huge gap up since the last earnings report, MRK has been building out a higher trading range as shown in the chart. Gaps have a way of being tested. One possibility is that the price comes back to the higher edge of the gap and the buyers step up right then or there. That is what we saw late yesterday and is why I took a position right at the close of trading. The other possibility is that the buying interest, sector or general market pressure cause the stock to trade into the gap. Once that happens, the bottom of the gap becomes the magnet for prices. Thus, if you take a position at the top of the gap, you have to bail if it doesn't hold and look to enter later when further selling has magnetized it to the bottom of the gap range. Just depends on your time frame. Longer term there's still nothing wrong with the stock, it will just be a longer term trade.

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Symbol = MRK Exchange = DJIA
Sector = Drug Manufacturers/Major
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 1.04%
Earnings Date = 2007/07/23
Beta = 0.87
PE = 23.3
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 10676200

Institutional
Buying = 0 Selling = 0 Holdings = 0.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.79
Previous Quarter = 0.22
2 Quarters Ago = 0.43
3 Quarters Ago = 0.69
4 Quarters Ago = 0.70
Percent Change Last = +260.39
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR DJIA
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bearish Sideways Sideways
3 Months Sideways Bearish Bullish
6 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish

TLT - Retrace - Go Short

2007-06-20T05:33:00.000-06:00

Symbol: TLT
[X] Enter
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Short

TLT is the proxy for long term bonds/interest rates. A few days back I suggested booking some if not all your gains and waiting for the retrace to rebuild the position. Well, here it comes. Let's review.

The TLT had formed a long term head and shoulders pattern, broke the neckline, built out a bearish wedge and then broke lower which extended a bit further than I even expected. Given the way it plunged and volume expanded, it washed out a lot of players and set up the vacuumn for a good bounce and here it comes. Notice the gap just above. It should hit that gap and back off then try again. So there's two trades; one on the touch and then the retest. If all goes as planned, both will fail. The first is a quicker flip, the second is done with the idea that it will last longer.

Looking at the above chart, I've logged the multiple levels of resistance on the way back. Given the straight line move higher off the bounce, I suspect the move will play out as described above; sellers at the bottom of the gap; a quick flip and a retest. Hard to say right now what the retest will do. It could fill the gap and run to the second resistance level. Given the multiple layers all the way back to the neckline break, you can pick your spots to short into strength with the notion that rates are heading higher before this is over.

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Symbol = TLT Exchange = Russell
Sector = Closed-End Fund - Equity
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 0.00%
Earnings Date = No Date Set
Beta = -0.26
PE = 0.0
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 1385900

Institutional
Buying = 0 Selling = 0 Holdings = 0.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.50
Previous Quarter = -1.03
2 Quarters Ago = 7.82
3 Quarters Ago = 2.27
4 Quarters Ago = 3.32
Percent Change Last = +148.70
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR Russell
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bearish Sideways Sideways
3 Months Bearish Sideways Sideways
6 Months Bearish Sideways Sideways
12 Months Bearish Sideways Bullish
24 Months Bearish Sideways Bullish

Note how we have a very bearish stock pattern in a sector that is sideways.

AAPL - Reversal - Go Short

2007-06-19T05:40:00.000-06:00

Symbol: ATK
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Long

AAPL is in the Personal Computers sector. Looking at the Trading Cube, I'm not as sure this is as good a short as I thought it was when I started a small position right after the close yesterday. Let's look at it though. In a normal market, this is a failure setup without question. In this market, I don't have that same confidence. Looking at the daily chart, look at the up volume compared to the down. No contest. The stock came off the top with big volume and now (with today's buzz) shoots back up on rampant speculation for no real good reason. Problem is, it could keep going up on no good reason cause if you look at the cube below, the sector is and has been bullish, the market is bullish to recently sideways and the stock has been bullish up until the recent spill.

Looking at the weekly chart, the picture is more pronounced in terms of trouble signs and the real key will be if they can't close lower than last week's close when this week is said and done.

======================================================================
Symbol = AAPL Exchange = NASDAQ
Sector = Personal Computers
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 0.00%
Earnings Date = 2007/07/25
Beta = 1.32
PE = 39.6
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 31834700

Institutional
Buying = 71351 Selling = 66504 Holdings = 70.9%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.89
Previous Quarter = 1.17
2 Quarters Ago = 0.63
3 Quarters Ago = 0.55
4 Quarters Ago = 0.49
Percent Change Last = -23.60
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR NASDAQ
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Bullish Sideways
3 Months Bullish Bullish Sideways
6 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Sideways Bullish

ATK - Channel - Go Long

2007-06-18T05:46:00.000-06:00

Symbol: ATK
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Long

ATK is in the Aerospace/Defense sector. After another high volume breakout it has been building another base as shown in the chart. With a high short interest; good institutional support and a Trading Cube matrix that can't be interepreted any way outside of bullish, this looks like a good longer term bet although I'll likely play it for a channel move (bottom back to top) for now.

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Symbol = ATK Exchange = SPX
Sector = Aerospace/Defense-Prd/Svc
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 8.03%
Earnings Date = 2007/08/2
Beta = 0.19
PE = 18.6
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 335100

Instutional
Buying = 5723 Selling = 3345 Holdings = 95.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 1.64
Previous Quarter = 1.55
2 Quarters Ago = 1.17
3 Quarters Ago = 1.10
4 Quarters Ago = 0.81
Percent Change Last = +2.55
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Bullish Sideways
3 Months Bullish Bullish Sideways
6 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish

JWN - Retrace - Go Short

2007-06-14T18:58:00.000-06:00

Symbol: JWN
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Short

JWN is in the retail sector; apparel. I've drawn in the support and resistance lines. If it creeps back up to the $54 area on no volume that's a good place to look short as you can stop out for a $1 and you are pushing for $4 minimum. If it actually breaks worse, it could provide a push all the way back to $42 on a longer term basis.

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Symbol = JWN Exchange = SPX
Sector = Apparel Stores
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 3.64%
Earnings Date = 2007/08/16
Beta = 1.42
PE = 19.8
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 2492300

Instutional
Buying = 29403 Selling = 30025 Holdings = 70.8%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.61
Previous Quarter = 0.90
2 Quarters Ago = 0.53
3 Quarters Ago = 0.68
4 Quarters Ago = 0.49
Percent Change Last = -32.64
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Sideways Sideways
3 Months Bearish Bearish Sideways
6 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish

JRN - Retrace - Go Long

2007-06-13T05:11:00.000-06:00

Symbol: JRN
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Long

JRN is in the publishing sector and on yesterday's weakness it came right back into the area from which it broke out. Odds are we will see buyers materialize here which is the short term trade opportunity. Stop is just below entry price based on last night's close and the target is back to the top of this channel at a minimum.

======================================================================
Symbol = JRN Exchange = SPX
Sector = Publishing - Newspapers
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 7.90%
Earnings Date = No Date Set
Beta = 0.94
PE = 18.0
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 260400

Instutional
Buying = 7183 Selling = 3416 Holdings = 65.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.13
Previous Quarter = 0.31
2 Quarters Ago = 0.38
3 Quarters Ago = 0.22
4 Quarters Ago = 0.14
Percent Change Last = -57.26
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bull

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bullish Sideways Bearish
3 Months Bullish Sideways Sideways
6 Months Sideways Sideways Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bearish Bullish

GLD - Channel - Go Long

2007-06-12T07:15:00.001-06:00

Symbol: GLD
[X] Entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Long

GLD is a proxy for gold bullion; the Gold ETF. It's has been showing weakness for a few months now but if you pull back the chart, you'll notice a nice sideways channel has developed long term. The price point at the bottom of that channel is around $63 which happens to coincide with a high volume low on the monthly charts. If that breaks and holds, then $60 becomes the support area that likely holds long term.

The trade is to get long on the pullback towards the $63 level and look for that level to hold. There have been divergences lately that suggest this will be the case, but you won't know until we get there and as we get there, if the stars align, that could be the best entry point for a while to come once more.

======================================================================
Symbol = GLD Exchange = SPX
Sector = Closed-End Fund - Equity
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 0.00%
Earnings Date = No Date Set
Beta = 0.00
PE = 39.0
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 5101700

Instutional
Buying = 0 Selling = 0 Holdings = 0.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.52
Previous Quarter = -0.02
2 Quarters Ago = 0.24
3 Quarters Ago = 0.91
4 Quarters Ago = 0.03
Percent Change Last = +999.00
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bearish Sideways Bearish
3 Months Bearish Sideways Sideways
6 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish Bullish

TLT - Take profits; look to reload

2007-06-11T05:48:00.000-06:00

Symbol: TLT
[X] Exit / Re-entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Take profits then Go Short again

TLT is the proxy for long term bonds/interest rates. It had formed a long term head and shoulders pattern, broke the neckline, built out a bearish wedge and then broke lower which triggered all the problems last week in stock market. Given the way it plunged and volume expanded, it would make sense to take most profits here and rebuild into the bounce from $85 to $88.

======================================================================
Symbol = TLT Exchange = Russell
Sector = Closed-End Fund - Equity
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 0.00%
Earnings Date = No Date Set
Beta = -0.24
PE = 0.0
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 1005800

Instutional
Buying = 0 Selling = 0 Holdings = 0.0%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.50
Previous Quarter = -1.03
2 Quarters Ago = 7.82
3 Quarters Ago = 2.27
4 Quarters Ago = 3.32
Percent Change Last = +148.70
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR Russell
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bearish Sideways Sideways
3 Months Bearish Sideways Sideways
6 Months Bearish Sideways Sideways
12 Months Bearish Sideways Bullish
24 Months Bearish Sideways Bullish

GFI - Support - Go Long

2007-06-08T06:40:00.000-06:00

Symbol: GFI
[X] Entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Long

GFI is in the Gold sector. It's is over extended to the downside here coming right into a high volume low area on the chart. I doubt seriously that it can take out that low ... at least not yet. There will likely be two buy points; one on a retest of the lows this morning and another on a retrace off a bounce later. Volume will likely be light today and if it is it's a nice setup to get long here. The whole sector is starting to show good relative strength again and after sitting these out for a couple months, I like them again. It was just a matter of time.

======================================================================
Symbol = GFI Exchange = SPX
Sector = Gold
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 1.73%
Earnings Date = 2007/08/1
Beta = -0.12
PE = 23.6
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 3641600

Instutional
Buying = 50986 Selling = 13970 Holdings = 21.9%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.08
Previous Quarter = 0.20
2 Quarters Ago = 0.20
3 Quarters Ago = 0.20
4 Quarters Ago = 0.16
Percent Change Last = -58.61
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bear MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bearish Bearish Bearish
3 Months Bearish Bullish Sideways
6 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish

AEM - Retrace - Go Long

2007-06-06T05:44:00.000-06:00

Symbol: AEM
[X] Entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Long

AEM is in the Gold sector. The last two days I have features gold stocks that are most interesting to me right there, right now. This is another one. It was the first one I bought a few days back and although I sold some for a quick flip, I added some back yesterday and will do more adding on weakness from here as long as that comes on light volume retracing. The whole sector is starting to show good relative strength again and after sitting these out for a couple months, I like them again. It was just a matter of time.

======================================================================
Symbol = AEM Exchange = SPX
Sector = Gold
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 3.38%
Earnings Date = No Date Set
Beta = -0.29
PE = 31.2
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 2082000

Instutional
Buying = 12107 Selling = 12094 Holdings = 60.4%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.21
Previous Quarter = 0.35
2 Quarters Ago = 0.38
3 Quarters Ago = 0.32
4 Quarters Ago = 0.35
Percent Change Last = -40.95
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Bullish Bullish Bullish
3 Months Sideways Bullish Bullish
6 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish

GG - Reversal - Go Long

2007-06-05T09:22:00.001-06:00

Symbol: GG
[X] Entry
Duration: 3 Months
Direction: Go Long

GG is in the Gold sector, a sector that continues to show relative strength (see the trading cube below). Recently, GG (like the chart I showed of NEM yesterday) began to show relative strength and I want to be a buyer on low volume retracements now. This stock has underperformed for a while as well and has a lot of catching up to do once it gets going. I would be surprised to see the $23 gap up bar broken now.

======================================================================
Symbol = GG Exchange = SPX
Sector = Gold
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 1.96%
Earnings Date = 2007/08/9
Beta = 0.26
PE = 26.7
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 7863800

Instutional
Buying = 46161 Selling = 41190 Holdings = 47.1%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.18
Previous Quarter = 0.11
2 Quarters Ago = 0.14
3 Quarters Ago = 0.50
4 Quarters Ago = 0.27
Percent Change Last = +60.21
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Bullish Bullish
3 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
6 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish

NEM - Reversal - Go Long

2007-06-04T07:14:00.001-06:00

Symbol: NEM
[X] Entry
Duration: 3 Months
Direction: Go Long

NEM is in the Gold sector, a sector that continues to show relative strength (see the trading cube below). Recently, NEM began to show relative strength and I want to be a buyer on low volume retracements now. This stock has underperformed for a while and has a lot of catching up to do once it gets going.

======================================================================
Symbol = NEM Exchange = SPX
Sector = Gold
======================================================================

FUNDAMENTALS
Short Interest = 3.78%
Earnings Date = No Date Set
Beta = 0.35
PE = 26.8
1/2 yr Avg Volume = 6936900

Instutional
Buying = 33117 Selling = 44236 Holdings = 68.1%

EPS Current Quarter = 0.15
Previous Quarter = 0.48
2 Quarters Ago = 0.59
3 Quarters Ago = 0.34
4 Quarters Ago = 0.46
Percent Change Last = -68.44
======================================================================
TECHNICALS
Stochastics =Bull MACD = Bear

TRADING CUBE TRENDS
TIME FRAME STOCK SECTOR SPX
======================================================================
2 Weeks Sideways Bullish Bullish
3 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
6 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
12 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bearish Bullish Bullish

GOOG - Resistance - Go Short

2007-06-01T07:01:00.000-06:00

Symbol: GOOG
[X] Entry
Duration: .5 Months
Direction: Go Short

GOOG is in the Internet Info. Providers sector. That sector has been struggling for a while now including GOOG. Yesterday it came all the way back up to kiss the resistance area from where it broke down. This provides a good short term trade. It's a high priced reasonably volatile stock so the attention to multiple small good entry points will define success or failure. I've started a small position pre-opening on the early pop again.

EarningsDate = No Date Set
Beta = 0.00
Inst Buying = 14035
Inst Selling = 9779

% Inst Holdings = 58.9
1/2yr Avg Volume = 5192200
Stochastics = Bull
MACD = Bull
PE = 44.6
EPS
Current Quarter = 3.24
Previous Quarter = 3.36
2 Quarters Ago = 2.42
3 Quarters Ago = 2.39
4 Quarters Ago = 2.02
% Change Last
Quarter = -3.21

Trading Cube
Sector = Internet Info. Providers
Exchange = NASDAQ

Time Frame Sector General Market
2 Weeks Sideways Bullish
3 Months Bearish Sideways
6 Months Bearish Bullish
12 Months Bearish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish

TLT - H&S - Go Short

2007-05-31T07:52:00.001-06:00

Symbol: TLT
[X] Entry
Duration: 6 Months
Direction: Go Short

TLT is the proxy for long term interest rates. It formed a long term head and shoulders pattern, broke the neckline and is now building out a bearish wedge as it builds strenth to head lower (rising rates). This will be a negative for the market longer term but right now all news is good news for the market and these rates usually take a while to make there complete move.

Beta = -0.26
Inst Buying = 0
Inst Selling = 0

% Inst Holdings = 0.0
1/2yr Avg Volume = 935300
Stochastics = Bull
MACD = Bear
PE = 0.0
EPS
Current Quarter = 0.50
Previous Quarter = -1.03
2 Quarters Ago = 7.82
3 Quarters Ago = 2.27
4 Quarters Ago = 3.32
% Change Last
Quarter = +148.70

Trading Cube
Sector = Closed-End Fund - Equity
Exchange = Russell

Time Frame Sector General Market
2 Weeks Sideways Sideways
3 Months Sideways Sideways
6 Months Sideways Sideways
12 Months Sideways Bullish
24 Months Sideways Bullish

AMAT - Gap - Go Short

2007-05-29T05:22:00.000-06:00

Symbol: AMAT
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Short

ANO is in the Industrial Metals/Mineral sector. It had a huge run from the $1 level to top out at $3. Since then it has been coming back in and now is finally reaching a level that we can think about buying back in. I just made the first purchase. The $2.04 level should hold as the first tier of support and though it could trade lower I believe you have to think about adding positions when they are willing to sell the positions to you.

EarningsDate = No Date Set
Beta = 1.88
Inst Buying = 836
Inst Selling = 709

% Inst Holdings = 3.8
1/2yr Avg Volume = 608400
Stochastics = Bear
MACD = Bull
PE = 0.0
EPS
Current Quarter = -0.01
Previous Quarter = -0.01
2 Quarters Ago = -0.01
3 Quarters Ago = -0.01
4 Quarters Ago = -0.01
% Change Last
Quarter = +41.37

Trading Cube
Sector = Industrial Metals/Mineral
Exchange = Russell

Time Frame Sector General Market
2 Weeks Bearish Bearish
3 Months Bullish Sideways
6 Months Bullish Sideways
12 Months Bullish Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish

BMI - Resistance - Go Short

2007-05-25T08:23:00.001-06:00

Symbol: BMI
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Short

BMI is in the Scientific/Tech Instruments sector. It had a big push lower off of earnings and has been retracing higher towards the break down area. There are two areas of resistance, right here and again higher on a weekly basis at the $28.5 area. The trading cube shows the sector as sideways while the stock's cube shows Bullish strength in the two week period but a Bearishness to Sideways movement in the 3 and 6 month view. My desire is to short here with a small position and see if we get an immediate retrace. If so, we take the bread and walk away. If not, we add to the short at the next resistance level and dare it to break through that major resistance area basis the weekly chart.

EarningsDate = No Date Set
Beta = 0.66
Short Interest = 0.0
Inst Buying = 2155
Inst Selling = 960

% Inst Holdings = 54.5
1/2yr Avg Volume = 73100
Stochastics = Bull
MACD = Bear
PE = 27.1
EPS
Current Quarter = 0.18
Previous Quarter = 0.17
2 Quarters Ago = 0.64
3 Quarters Ago = 0.29
4 Quarters Ago = 0.38
% Change Last
Quarter = +5.26

Trading Cube
Sector = Scientific/Tech Instrmnts
Exchange = NASDAQ

Time Frame Sector General Market
2 Weeks Sideways Bearish
3 Months Sideways Sideways
6 Months Sideways Bullish
12 Months Sideways Bullish
24 Months Bullish Bullish

KO - Gap - Go Long

2007-05-24T05:52:00.000-06:00

Symbol: KO
[X] Entry
Duration: 2 Weeks
Direction: Go Long

KO is in the Beverages-Soft Drinks sector. It had a big push higher off of earnings and is starting to come back down on lighter volume to test that breakout area. As a member of the wild and crazy DJIA, this might be a good play to consider on a time frame that matches the trading cube show below.

With this chart and going forward, I'll be posting the printout from my trading cube program. Essentially I've been gathering data together that gives me a better read on where a stock stands on both a fundamental and technical basis.

At the very bottom of this printout is the trading cube which considers the trend of the this stock's sector and the general market that it trades in giving us a better read on what kind of time frame we have to be considering when we enter the trade so as to improve our success ratio.

EarningsDate = No Date Set
Beta = 0.60
Short Interest = Unknown
Inst Buying = 120523
Inst Selling = 69203

% Inst Holdings = 65.9
1/2yr Avg Volume = 8867700
Stochastics = Bear
MACD = Bull
PE = 22.9
EPS
Current Quarter = 0.55
Previous Quarter = 0.29
2 Quarters Ago = 0.62
3 Quarters Ago = 0.78
4 Quarters Ago = 0.47
% Change Last
Quarter = +87.74

Trading Cube
Sector = Beverages-Soft Drinks
Exchange = DJIA

Time Frame Sector General Market
2 Weeks Sideways Sideways
3 Months Bullish Bullish
6 Months Sideways Bullish
12 Months Sideways Bullish
24 Months Sideways Bullish

What this cube does for us is to fill out two of the three rows of the trading cube. The third row is for the stock itself and it looks like this for KO

Time Frame Stock
2 Weeks Sideways
3 Months Bullish
6 Months Bullish
12 Months Bullish
24 Months Bullish

So, if we put it all together, the sweet spot for this trade is the 3 months time frame from the long side as that's where it has the best opportunity of a successful trade. Looking at the KO chart, we could play hard here at the $50.75 area buying a lot of stock expecting the bounce off the first test of the gap but knowing that we have to take some profits on the bounce because it's more likely that the stock will mill around for a while at these higher levels and that there's a decent possibility that the better buy will come back at the same levels later or even potentially lower considering the time frame.

Also note that the sector is not overly bullish and not supporting a overly bullish tone on this particular stock which adds to the thought that we should plan to stay in the trade for a long time of time the first time up to the plate.

Cash

2007-05-23T07:26:00.001-06:00

I cannot, in good conscience, show charts here to buy or sell when this market belies the logic of technical analysis. The best place to be is cash unless you have bought many moons ago and are simply holding rising stocks. For now, it's cash until the market starts trading more normally.

CBT - Gap - Go Short

2007-05-21T06:34:00.000-06:00

Symbol: CBT
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

CBT is in the chemical manufacturing sector. It had a big push lower off of earnings and just retested the gap down on Friday session. That test failed on both price and volume. We should see this trade lower as a result. A retest of the recent lows is a distinct possibility but regardless, some sort of lower test looks quite likely at this juncture.

SDS - Reversal - Go Long

2007-05-18T05:11:00.000-06:00

Symbol: SDS
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

SDS is the 2x ETF for SPX. It has been bumping up against the lows here and yesterday gave us a break below the recent lows on low volume then a reversal back into the range. The failure to hold the new lows and the fact that it comes on low volume suggests that a reversal could be at hand. As with setups, its just another setup that offers opportunity. If it holds true, then it offers the opportunity to get long at or near the $52 level using a stop below the lows of yesterday to protect. If it trades higher (SPX comes in) then the target is back up at the $5+ level.

ATHR - Retrace - Go Long

2007-05-17T08:13:00.000-06:00

Symbol: ATHR
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

ATHR is in the communications chips sector. They had a good earnings spike and have retraced to test that spike now. The stop is a couple dimes below the lows and the target is a retest of the highs.

MHS - Gap - Go Short

2007-05-16T06:18:00.000-06:00

Symbol: MHS
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

MHS is in the retail drug sector. They had a gap down on earnings and have now retraced to the gap area and failed two days running. Target is that high volume way down on the chart while resistance is a little into the gap. Nice risk to reward play. The largest risk right now with any indivdual stock is overnight as the M&A activity is enough to give you heartburn.

IWM - Resistance - Go Short

2007-05-15T07:14:00.000-06:00

Symbol: IWM
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

IWM is the ETF for Russell 2000. There is a wall of resistance at the $82.50 area. For the past 3 months, the only significant volume has come when declines have been seen. This is distribution and eventually it will take a toll

MAS - Gap - Go Long

2007-05-14T06:53:00.000-06:00

Symbol: QID
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

MAS is in the lumber industry and recently made a gap higher and now has retraced to test that area. These types of charts offer good risk to reward trades. You can buy near the top of the gap and if it trades into and looks to close within the gap, you pull out of lighten up and then buy back in on a close of the gap. If it's really strong, it won't close the gap at this juncture which is the primary case you are after. Should retest the recent highs at $31.5 at the very least. Risk is $29.1 or so, reward $31.3. An entry at Friday's close is quite advantageous.

ALSK - Gap - Go Long

2007-05-10T16:32:00.000-06:00

Symbol: ALSK
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

ALSK is in the communications sector and today gave a classic type buy signal. That signal was a high volume support area being tested and rejected on price and volume. The high volume day was the low of the break away gap up move on 4/27/07 which was tested today on lighter volume. By the close, the price was rejected and we traded higher into the close. As long as this area holds, we have a good shot at a retest of the recent highs at worst, new highs possibly.

QID - Support - Go Long

2007-05-10T06:07:00.000-06:00

Symbol: QID
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

QID is the ETF for QQQQ. It has been bumping up against the lows here and yesterday gave us a failure to push to new lows. That gives the appearance of a good bounce trade higher back towards resistance. This trade, like the TWM trade mentioned a couple days back are trades where you are going against the prevailing trend. Those trades require that you move in and out as the share price gyrates ... working from the long side (short the underlying market) as it whipsaws the participants.

DBA - Basing - Go Long

2007-05-09T07:24:00.000-06:00

Symbol: DBA
[X] Entry
Duration: Long Term
Direction: Go Long

DBA is the ETF for a mixture of commodity futures contracts. The weighting is
55% tied to crude oil and heating oil, then aluminum and gold at 22.50% and finally corn and wheat at 22.50%. I would actually like a little more weighting in the grains but it's the closest thing to playing the bullish commodity components outside the futures contracts. Note it is a volatile instrument which is good for trading (buying and selling dips and peaks) while slowly working it mostly from the long side long term positioning).

Technically, it's at it's base and if you look at the underlying contracts of the components, they have settled back into their bases here which is good underlying support. That doesn't mean it can't trade lower ... it can but this is a decent place to consider trading it from the long side.

TWM - Support - Go Long

2007-05-08T06:46:00.000-06:00

Symbol: TWM
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

TWM is the ETF for Russell 2000. It has been struggling to push back to the recent lows and appears ready to consolidate or retrace higher. The volume has all but disappeared on this push to make new lows (new highs in the Russell) and yesterday's push lower with the higher close is the signal that you can take a shot. I'm already in this index having averaged in from a higher point but will be looking to trade it today given the general weakness displayed earlier. The QID and SDS look similar.

GLD - Resistance - Go Short

2007-05-07T06:47:00.000-06:00

Symbol: GLD
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

GLD is the ETF for gold bullion. It is at a crossroads here with resistance overhead and speculation rife. The dollar looks to be turning finally and lately the government statistics have not supported the inflation outlook. This leaves the opportunity for a quick hard pullback here. Risk is about .50 and reward about $3 to $4.

ATAC - Gap - Go Long

2007-05-03T21:49:00.001-06:00

Symbol: ATAC
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

ATAC is in the retail sector; automobile supplies if I remember correctly. The stock broke out to new highs on volume off the earnings report on a gap away move. The move looks to have legs and the gap is support. It may settle here for a while, but this looks like a longer term play.

RX - Breakout - Go Long

2007-05-02T21:33:00.000-06:00

Symbol: RX
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

RX is in the computer services sector. The stock broke out to new highs on volume off the earnings report. I bought a little on the dip today. The stock is showing serious strength here and that $30 area is serious support now.

MON - Gap - Go Long

2007-05-02T07:05:00.000-06:00

Symbol: MON
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

MON is in the agricultural sector. That sector has been consolidating gains and spiked up in gap fashion recently on earnings. Yesterday we got the retrace to the gap area which was the buy area. I bit and if we hold now and if the general market allows, I'll look to add a bit more.

LWSN - Gap - Go Long

2007-04-30T23:23:00.000-06:00

Symbol: LWSN
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

LWSN is in the software sector and has displayed several signs of strength with the latest being a high volume top on earnings. We are starting to pull back now; back towards that gap area from the previous break higher. I started a very small position here and will look to add at the support area at the edge of the gap if we come back that far.

AMTD - Resistance - Go Short

2007-04-30T07:43:00.000-06:00

Symbol: AMTD
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

AMTD is in the brokerage sector and it has a very interesting short term set up as it's pushing against resistance with no volume. You can set your stop very tight and see if it turns back here. I wouldn't give it more than $17 on the stop. ETFC is in the same situation.

RAD - Wedge - Go Long

2007-04-27T07:11:00.000-06:00

Symbol: RAD
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

RAD is in the retail sector and what I find interesting about it is the long term chart. As you can see, we ran right up to resistance on a large multi-year wedge formation and are now building strength to break through that area. This could take another few weeks or even months but it's looks like a good longer term play to start positioning and waiting on the break higher because when it breaks, there's a lot of room to run.

Here's a closer view. As we can see with this daily chart, the support may be as low as $4.80 or so but given the volume spikes of late, I don't think it will come in that far. More likely it trades between $5.5 and $6.5 until it breaks out.

INTC - Resistance - Go Short

2007-04-26T06:10:00.000-06:00

Symbol: INTC
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

INTC is in the tech sector and has continued it's run higher even after I tried to short it a $1 lower over a week ago (that trade of course didn't work out). Here we are again at the last of the serious resistance points and although the risk of being stopped out is higher, it's another good risk/reward play at this juncture for a short term trade.

MTRX - Gap - Go Long

2007-04-25T05:47:00.000-06:00

Symbol: MTRX
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long
Comments:

MTRX is in the construction sector which is odd given it's strength versus that general sectors business problems. It has made a gap up on earnings news and is now digesting the move. I've started a very small position and am looking to add to it further. Note that the ideal entry is back at the lows of the gap up day. I've put an initial position on here so I am forced to look at it so when the time is right I can move further. The idea is also to be in it in case it just doesn't come back in to the price point desired.

IBM - Gap - Go Short

2007-04-23T20:31:00.000-06:00

Symbol: IBM
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

IBM is in the technology sector selling services, hardware and software. Looking at the chart, this is a good place to look at shorting the stock. Resistance is stiff at the $96 level given the failure to overtake the high volume down day bar from January 19th of this year. I started shorting on the strength today and will likely do more so tomorrow. Volume today was tepid and I suspect that we'll see pressure reestablished soon to the share price.

BMI - Wedge - Go Short

2007-04-22T20:55:00.000-06:00

Symbol: BMI
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Short

BMI is in the scientific and technical instruments sector. Like many stocks, it took a good hit back on the Feb 27th week but after earnings were reported last week, it had an even worse week on volume. The fact that volume expanded so seriously suggests strongly that we will see lower prices over the intermediate term. If I look at the daily chart, the attempted bounce back after earnings was sold hard on Friday so now there are two heavy down bar days and the $26 area looks to be pretty good resistance. I have a mind to sell it short on anything towards the $26 area with a stop out thought above $27. The low 20's look like a very reachable target now.

TLT - Retrace - Go Short

2007-04-20T07:03:00.000-06:00

Symbol: TLT
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Short

TLT is the bond fund ETF and it has sprinted higher this week after come close to breaking the neckline of a large head and shoulders formation. I began a very small position and am interested in adding to it on a further bounce north. The $89 area is a good one to add about 1/2 a position as well as the $89.5 juncture. A break of those lows around $87 on volume will signal the next leg down and measures to below $80

EWJ - Wedge - Go Short

2007-04-18T21:06:00.000-06:00

Symbol: EWJ
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Short

EWJ is the ETF for the Japanese market. A large wedge has formed with some stiff overhead resistance. With all the global markets seemingly running on fumes and with the Yen starting to strengthen, this looks like a good point to start shorting this market. The risk versus the reward is quite favorable here and I've started a position in the afterhours and will look to add to it in the coming days.

INTC - Resistance - Go Short

2007-04-17T05:36:00.001-06:00

Symbol: INTC
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

INTC is in the tech sector and has been on quite a running leading up to earnings. After hours it traded up another 50 cents right into resistance. I shorted a little right at the close of that session and with it opening up +3% this morning, I've a bid in to add to it here. Here's what I'm looking at. There is a significant bar of volume at the $21.50 level from the downdraft of 1/17/2007. As we know, INTC can get on a serious run and that it has done moving from $18.75 a mere two weeks past to opening bids of $21.60+ this morning. That's a good 15 to 16% rise in that time period. Seems a bit overdone short term and with the resistance bar sitting out there I would think there's a good chance of a retracement to the $20ish level at worst near term.

Cash Mostly

2007-04-17T05:36:00.000-06:00

Last week I began probing for a turn in the market suggesting the FXI, SKF, SDS, and the QID as possible shorts. All of these failed to stick with the exception of the latter. Only the FXI looks like a good short again at this particular time. The SKF would be good again down around $70. As for the SDS, it's hitting new lows (new highs in the SPX).

All during this period I have held high levels of cash and have been taking a little bit in profits on the few long term longs I hold as they sky to new highs. Cash continues to be king for me for now. I will continue to probe on short positions as they present themselves because short, unlike buying stocks, requires little probes here and there with quick covers if wrong until you hit the big one.

OPBL - Wedge - Go Long

2007-04-16T05:33:00.000-06:00

Symbol: OPBL
[X] Entry
Duration: Long Term
Direction: Go Long

OPBL is in the financial brokerage sector with as brokerage service provider to brokerage firms, financial institutions, energy traders, and hedge funds nationwide. This continues to be a hot sector. On the weekly chart, extreme interest is shown on the buy side and a weekly bar of huge volume on 1/22, support is strong at the $5-$6 range. I'll look to start a long term position on anything towards $6 with the plan to average in over time.

RRD - Breakout - Go Long

2007-04-12T20:56:00.000-06:00

Symbol: RRD
[X] Entry
Duration: Long Term
Direction: Go Long

RRD is in the printing sector and broke out with volume today over the highs. If we can catch any kind of retrace into the $39 area in the morning it's worth socking some away for a longer haul. .

MON - Gap - Go Long

2007-04-11T20:37:00.000-06:00

Symbol: MON
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

MON is in the chemical manufacturing sector which has been a strong group with the commodity boom. . With the weakness in the market this came in some back to the gap and there should be an opportunity to get long in here with a very close stop just below the gap. We should see a retest of the highs at worst and potential more if we get follow through off earnings.

ANO - Momentum - Take Partial Profits

2007-04-11T06:29:00.000-06:00

Symbol: ANO
[X] Exit
Duration: Long Term
Direction: Take Partial Profits

ANO is in the metals group and has had a spectacular run since we first bought it. With momentum starting to wane, I trimmed this back yesterday leaving my profits on the table basically and will see if it comes back in some before we reload. Very similar to what we have been doing with NTRZ which broke out again yesterday. Trim on strength, buy back on weakness for a long term trade. .

SKF - Support - Go Long

2007-04-09T20:27:00.000-06:00

Symbol: SKF
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

The SKF is the Ultra Short Financials ETF. With the earnings season approaching the desire is to steer clear of new positions in individual stocks until they have reported and settled down in their trading. ETF trading provides the ability to participate but to remain aloof to a certain extent. . On the chart you can see that there are basically three levels that this ETF has traded in over the past couple months. We are in the middle of that range but at the lower end of the higher of the two ranges. Given my general negativity about the market, going long this ultra short ETF of the financials seems fitting at this particular point. I would like to catch an entry around the $74 area if at all possible and use that area as the quick stop out if the financials catch more than just a passing bid.

SDS - Gap - Go Long

2007-04-09T05:26:00.000-06:00

Symbol: SDS
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

SDS is the ProShares 2x Inverse of the SPX ETF. It's a common trading vehicle in that it offers 2x the movement of the S&P 500 and is quite liquid. On the chart you can see that we are filling the gap now from that big downdraft back in February and we are doing so with absolutely no volume. . With earnings season upon us, this is not the time to short individual stocks so a broad index is a better move. The SPY is an alternative if you want a little less risk as it trades 1 to 1 with the SPX. Reward to risk is now favorable.

QID - Support - Go Long

2007-04-04T20:04:00.000-06:00

Symbol: QID
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

QID is the ProShares 2x Inverse of the NDX ETF. It's a common trading vehicle in that it offers 2x the movement of the NDX and is quite liquid. On the chart you can see that we are nestled up against support here. . Note that this is the second time down to this support area and usually, if it's going to break we will see prices mill around down here, try to spike back up but quickly reject and come tumbling back down for the third attempted try. So, odds are we probably don't break right here right now even if we are going to break. Add to it that the volume is drying up here. Even if we are wrong and it does break, we can take this trade on for around $52 with a .50 cent stop and shoot for a retest of the top of that bar down from Tuesday at $53.45. That's about a 3:1 reward to risk and it comes on a trade that won't likely last more than two or three days. Within that time period we will either have made our money or lost it.

DBA - Support - Go Long

2007-04-04T05:25:00.001-06:00

Symbol: DBA
[X] Entry
Duration: Long Term
Direction: Go Long

DBA is an ETF for the agricultural markets. The ETF consist of Corn, Wheat, Soybeans and Sugar. I am looking at this from both a fundamental and technical perspective. . The fundamentals is that the commodity markets, particularly the grains, have been in and will likely continue to be in a bull market for some time to come. Technically, we have moved back towards the price at inception for this ETF which is where support lies. If you look at the individual components for this ETF, all the grains are likely carving out their respective bottoms now in the futures markets and sugar has been in a downtrend but is nearing longer term support now.

This is the type of trade that you buy a 1/4 or 1/3 now and then look to add lower or higher as the technical picture develops further.

FXI - Bearish Wedge - Go Short

2007-04-02T21:42:00.000-06:00

Symbol: FXI
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

FXI is the ETF for China. After having good success shorting this in the past couple months, I have been waiting for a good three to four weeks to do so again. Today it finally closed that big gap down and did so on light volume then immediately began to back down. .
What you usually find in these types of trades is that once a gap is filled, unless the contract immediately burst through it you usually get a retrace even if it might be eventually heading even higher. So, the opportunity is likely upon us. I did start the short on the fill of the gap and will look to trade around that position now.

OIH - Resistance - Go Short

2007-04-02T05:59:00.000-06:00

Symbol: OIH
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

OIH is the ETF for the oil services sector. I have been looking to get long this group for a while now but never did get an entry on the ETF. Now, it appears they may be an opportunity for a short position trade on strength back towards $150. . The lack of volume on the push higher coupled with the notion that the stocks are no longer following crude oils lead suggests that a short covering spike could lead to a good short term position trade to the short side to scalp some dollars. It's a short term trade and the ultimate desire is to be long the group on an intermediate term basis not short. If you can't get the entry at or near the $150 area, the reward/risk isn't worth it. Need to see a short covering squeeze that comes again without volume.

Cash into the Weekend

2007-03-30T00:49:00.000-06:00

I was tempted to post a pick today but after considering everything holding cash for another day seems to be the best pick. It's end of quarter and end of month. The cross currents are likely to be out there again today. If we get a rally on light volume I'll likely look to the QID to establish long positions again and effectively short the NDX. My thinking is that we could begin a serious fall in the coming days although the put/call ratio and my oscillators argue against that come next week. So, mixed signals keep us on hold and in cash.

Cash is King

2007-03-29T06:20:00.000-06:00

I believe the most prudent course of action is to remain mostly in cash here. It's tempting to consider a long or short side trade but the noise out there is louder than the direction. If we look at the QID, . we can see that the market (seen through the eyes of the QQQQ) is bouncing between $52 and $55. With the current price point at $53.80 that's almost directly in the middle of the range. Trying to trade here is more of a crapshoot than a trade. Intraday you can trade the swings, but interday this isn't the area to make a stand. That buy or sell should happen at the edges of the range, not the centerpoint.

Cash

2007-03-27T20:16:00.000-06:00

Back to cash. Today I moved almost completely back to cash. After catching the move off the bottom, we are at a price point that I'm uncomfortable to continue holding positions long. Although I like the metals I'm concerned that if the equities sell off, they take everything with them. The risk/reward just doesn't warrant a lot in terms of positions anymore at these price points; long or short. So, back to the safest of havens in the meantime ... cash.

BVSN - Retrace - Go Long

2007-03-26T20:16:00.000-06:00

Symbol: BVSN
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

BVSN is in the technology sector and has had quite a run over the short term. Friday and again today it pulled back hard although today it reversed higher. If we see weakness early tomorrow, it would be worth a hard look and a buy as the low was put in today most likely and you can use that area to stop out. . I don't know that it will give us an entry tomorrow but I suspect one will come along in the near term. This is a short term trade with the idea of buy, flip and reload in the near future. It has a high enough beta to think that way.

OIH - Trend Line Break - Go Long

2007-03-25T20:47:00.000-06:00

Symbol: OIH
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

OIH is the ETF for the oil services sector. I have been eyeing this group for a while now and have been invested in some individual issues recently but now that we have the trend line break I'm interested in moving into the broader ETF now on a retrace. . There are a lot of reasons to consider this group now. First off, they are still printing money at these price points. Second, demand isn't an issue yet so they should be able to hold their price gains for the intermediate term. Third, technically they have given a good price point for an entry that offers a good risk/reward.

Look at the chart. The trend line break was at $144. There is really good support at $141. Adding in this range carries risk back to the swing point at $136.55. The next retrace is the one to purchase ... ideally close to the $141 area. That would risk $4 or $5. If this setup is what I believe it to be, we should be gunning for the swing point to be taken out at $151 and if that happens it's on to the next target which is the $157 area. That's probably a good target for the intermediate term. So, we are realistically shooting for $16 and risking $5 to do so. That works and it also meets the objective of a realistic chance of succeeding since technically we have a good setup that should at least push higher once more (assuming we retrace this week) and we can use that strength to put stops in at profitable exit points even if we don't get the full price expansion we are after.

SKF - Retrace - Go Long

2007-03-22T05:33:00.000-06:00

Symbol: SKF
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

The SKF is the Ultra Short Financials ETF. With the short term oscillators extremely overbought in the majority of this market and this issues retesting it's breakout area on lighter volume, this now appears to be ripe for action.
. That $70 area is the retest point. Entries in that area should provide a very good risk/reward now assuming volume stays light on the retest as it did yesterday.

QID - Support - Go Long

2007-03-20T21:18:00.000-06:00

Symbol: QID
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

The QID is the Ultra Short NDX ETF. With the short term oscillators extremely overbought this is a good way to hedge your portfolio or play an outright short. Upside in the near term (week or so) is extremely limited in my opinion.
. That $53.50 area looks ideal for an entry.

SSRI - Wedge - Go Long

2007-03-19T17:42:00.001-06:00

Symbol: SSRI
[X] Add to positions
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

SSRI is in the metals sector and is one of the strongest metal stocks currently. After watching this stock rise relentlessly from early January through the end of February, it finally offered the opportunity to start rebuilding positions over the past three weeks. . I added on weakness in early March and and am eyeing a further add if it can take out that high volume down day from the 2nd of March. A push over and close above the $32.73 area would encourage me that we are moving back up to the next level and that I could inch into some more positions. If we fail to do so in the next couple days, then we are likely heading back down a bit to build strength to try again.

HRS - Wedge - Go Long

2007-03-18T20:40:00.000-06:00

Symbol: HRS
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

HRS is in the communications equipment sector. After new highs in early February the price has retreated and now is getting interesting ... if for nothing other than a short term trade. The last two weeks we see prices trying to push lower but unable to stay down. . This is a weekly view of HRS. Note the last two weeks. Prices retreated to the breakout bar week (the first week of January) and tested the bottom of that range on light, then lighter volume. This suggests there are no sellers down here and that the direction is likely right back up into that higher range. The first test is $50.65 high on the bar from 3 weeks past. If that test succeeds, then it's the old highs. Risk is $46 or so.

IEX - Retrace - Go Long

2007-03-14T21:13:00.000-06:00

Symbol: IEX
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

IEX is in the capital goods sector. After new highs were made only a nice push off of earnings, we get the retrace. Time to act. I started a position today and will look to add tomorrow.. Note the volume on the breakout and now the retrace right back to that area on light volume. The buyers rush in, reverse it higher and close it back above the recent lows. This likely follows through tomorrow and if and when it pushes above that $50.63 swing point, then we'll have something worth riding back higher. If it fails to get above that, we'll have to exit at least a partial. We can likely use that $48.75 area as a stop out now.

CASH

2007-03-14T05:54:00.001-06:00

To crazy againg to suggest a position; short or long for more than a few hours. The only place I'm looking to buy is on deep pullbacks in gold stocks.

MFN - Trend Line Break - Go Long

2007-03-11T21:11:00.001-06:00

Symbol: MFN
[X] Add to existing position
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

MFN is in the gold sector and showing a very nice pattern. . This sector continues to be rewarding and that doesn't appear to be over just yet. After about a six week consolidation, it is readying for another push to test the recent highs. Yesterday saw a nice thrust higher and if we catch a retrace here back towards the break of that consolidation trend line, we should buy it. I will be looking to do so to add to a few positions I already have on the books.

AMGN - Bounce - Go Long

2007-03-11T21:11:00.000-06:00

Symbol: AMGN
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

AMGN is the premier biotech firm and has been pounded significantly from it's highs 7 weeks past. Once more, it appears to be at a level where a bounce trade looks to be in offing. . The drill is to buy a little and if it trades lower, buy a little more looking for a bounce back higher within 3 to 4 trading days. On a bounce trade, you want to get in, get your money and flip most of the shares if not all. In this particular case, AMGN has been sold down very hard and a bounce back as high as $64 to $65 is not out of the question so it could turn out to be a very profitable quick trade.

ZIXI - Retrace - Go Long

2007-03-07T15:29:00.001-07:00

Symbol: ZIXI
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

ZIXI is in computer services sector and after a successful test of the breakout area, it looks to be readying for an attempt back to the highs. If you look at the picture perfect move from the highs back to the last swing point, you can see how volume was no match on the way down for the breakout volume that occurred on the way up. That's a good setup. I started a position today and will be looking to add to it tomorrow.

PXP - Channel - Go Long

2007-03-07T15:29:00.000-07:00

Symbol: PXP
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

PXP is in the oil and gas sector which refuses to come in. If you take a look at this particular stock it is showing us a very good risk/reward trade in a sector that is not willing to go down.. I was looking through oil charts today and they are a few that are starting to set up long. I'm not in a rush to jump here given the market choppiness, but this one looks particularly interesting now.

QLD - Wedge - Go Long

2007-03-06T20:40:00.000-07:00

Symbol: QLD
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

QLD is the Ultra long ProShares that mimics the NDX. We caught a nice reversal in it today and within the next couple days it should see choppy trading take it back towards that reversal up area.. If this does in fact occur, given what I see now, the recent lows likely hold and then we will see a very serious bounce occur. Positioning long into that bounce for a low cost basis will provide a very good risk/reward ratio.

GLD - Retrace - Go Long

2007-03-05T20:29:00.000-07:00

Symbol: GLD
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

GLD is the gold ETF and it appears to me that it's clawing out yet another bottom in this larger intermediate swing north. If we look back over a couple years, you can see that the way this market washes folks out, it happens in a frenzy ... very much like what we are witnessing now. At the current price point, we are at confluence (the area of overlap between Fib retracements associated with two or more advancing ABC structures) and we are seeing a price decline that feels like a washout. The decline has brought us back into the top of the buying surge of November now; a good place to bottom.

Cash and Patience

2007-03-05T05:51:00.000-07:00

This is not the time to start any wholesale buying nor to dump positions into the abysmal opening. If you have cash, you deploy it extremely slowly into the chaos. Cash is king in situations like those that we face currently. This is the safest course of action today.

QID - Wedge - Go Long

2007-03-01T05:28:00.000-07:00

Symbol: QID
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

QID is the ultra short ETF of the NASDAQ NDX. It's a liquid ETF a nice vehicle to trade long (which means you are shorting) the market. I've highlighted the idea area to have the maximum position on in place being that $52ish area. The thought is that you start building a position as we move down and trade around it until you get some size as we approach that area. If we trade and close below the low of that melt down on Tuesday, then we definitely have a bad trade on our hands.

TLT - Trend Line Resistance - Go Short

2007-02-26T20:42:00.001-07:00

Symbol: TLT
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Short

TLT is a proxy for the long bond. Coming into today I had thought that we might get a clean head and shoulders topping pattern but the flight to safety that resulted from the melt down of the equities market changed that. What it didn't change though, was my opinion of where this will head intermediate term. If you look at the chart you will see that large volume spikes in the TLT many time result in exhaustion type moves and I believe the one we saw today is of that variety. I say that because we have horizontal resistance as a double top not far ahead, down trend line resistance as well at the same area and a sloppy head and shoulders top if today's spike was all that there is in this issue.

If you consider that we have inflation roaming around the countryside and that this isn't going away anytime soon, then you have to come to the conclusion that bond rates are not likely going to go down much ... if at all. What they will do over the intermediate term is find a reason to rise. That will drive this issue lower back towards the bottom of the chart.

I started a position today and had intended to add to it further at the 90.38 mark but held off due to the excessive flight to safety that was happening. I will look to build a reasonably large sized position in this over the next few days.

USO - Trend Line Resistance - Go Short

2007-02-26T20:42:00.000-07:00

Symbol: EMN
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

USO is the ETF for crude oil and it has confounded most here of late with it's continued drive higher. Another little spurt higher tomorrow or Wednesday (oil inventory numbers come out each Wednesday) could set the table for a good short term trading opportunity on the short side. I'm always looking for opportunities where the risk is reasonably small as compared to the potential reward. I believe that oil is nearing a point where we could get a more serious turn north once more and the question is whether it's here and now or a little bit further down the road.

I don't purport to know that but I do know when I see a good probability play. In this chart I see a relatively low volume push higher that, once it crossed the even $50 level it has refuse to crumble. Odds are that it want to test/touch the high of that down bar of 1/3/07 at $51.42. If volume picks up and/or if it can close above the high, that would negate the setup. If, however, that doesn't occur and we close back under the $51.42 level, I believe that we have a very good risk/reward play. A retest of the $48 level should be in the cards on such a failure.

EMN - Retrace - Go Short

2007-02-26T09:46:00.000-07:00

Symbol: EMN
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

EMN is in the basic industries sector; chemicals in particular. It suffered a large down draft back at the end of January and has now climbed all the way back on low volume. Time to short. Today it has reversed intraday showing a failure on the climb and giving us a clean stop out point (today's highs).

GOOG - Retrace - Go Short

2007-02-23T01:43:00.000-07:00

Symbol: GOOG
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

GOOG is in the Internet sector. It suffered a large down draft back on the 1st of Feb on heavy volume and yesterday retraced back to that down bar on light volume setting up a good short sell on low risk. The resistance area (shaded red) shows the zone it should die on the advance and sure enough it did turn in that area. We could see a further push this morning higher if the NDX starts strong and that would be a perfect time to set the table for the play back down. Target is around $405 with risk of about $486 on the topside depending on your entry and your fortitude for this high beta, high priced stock it looks quite good to me.

GSS & HMY - Retrace - Go Long

2007-02-21T20:06:00.001-07:00

Symbol: GSS & HMY
[X] Entry & Add
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

Two for the price of one tonight. Both are compelling in the gold sector which is red hot. Both probably offer good buys at this juncture in a sector where entry is difficult.

GSS is an add for the TA Today portfolio. I've had a alarm set at the $3.38 level which just missed triggering the last couple days when an entry here would have been sweet Like NTRZ which I highlighted a couple days back, GSS is having a secondary and on a strong stock, these things usually just give buyers a great entry point. I suspect this is no different.

On HMY, I've highlighted this stock previously back on Jan 19th when it was just starting to put in the bottom and have nursed it along buying and selling it since then. Today it finally has a real sign of strength and looks to be headed for that down trend line and the resistance area of $14.50. Although it will likely take longer for this one to give a full price projection to play out, it is a stock that, if you are still looking for an entry, it allows a decent entry point with reasonable risk as it isn't extended yet like most.

EMC - Gap - Go Long

2007-02-20T20:50:00.000-07:00

Symbol: EMC
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

EMC is in the technology sector, data storage in particular. It has been gradually rising for a while now and large volume accumulations have accompanied that move. With earnings out, we saw a gap up and that has held. I added some shares last Friday and am looking to add more if the stock continues to show relative strength. It shouldn't close the gap at this point.

NTRZ - Retrace - Go Long

2007-02-19T20:20:00.000-07:00

Symbol: NTRX
[X] Entry
Duration: Long Term
Direction: Go Long

NTRZ is in the bio-tech sector and after a big volume push up on 2/12 that served to break out of the consolidation range established since early December, we pulled back hard on word of more shares being offered to raise funds for further expansion. I've written elsewhere about this same sort of situation with other strong stocks and I suspect this one is no different. These stocks seem to attract lower prices the day the offering is announced but then tend to climb steadily back to where they were prior to the offering in rather short order.

NTRZ did this on the day of the announcement climbing from down .40 on a $3.10 stock to down only .17 by the close. Tuesday we may see some early weakness and that will offer an opportunity to buy a bit more if it occurs. The breakout area of $2.70 should hold now given Friday's action.

CRA - Retrace - Go Long

2007-02-16T03:43:00.000-07:00

Symbol: CRA
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Long

CRA is in the bio-tech sector and after a big volume push up on 1/19 yesterday we saw a retest of that push on lighter volume; a rejection of the short term down trend a bounce back higher in price. This tells us that more than likely this now wants to retest those highs of 2/2/07. If there's anything I don't like about the chart it's that we came off the highs with volume and the retest could fail the first time so my time frame is short. Try to get an entry in the low $15's, put a stop just below yesterday's lows and shoot for $16.3 or so. If we get there and the volume doesn't pick up on the retest, take the money and wait to try again.

MER - Short Term Trend/Retrace - Go Short

2007-02-12T20:41:00.002-07:00

Symbol: DIS
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

MER is in the finanical sector and after a big volume push off the top; a retrace that failed and then another push on heavier volume lower we are seeing another retrace. Given that the markets took off yesterday, this has a higher probability of a stop out but I did enter the trade yesterday and depending on what the market does today, may add more. Stop is over that swing bar with high volume. If it gets there, you don't want to be short. Wouldn't give it more than 15 cents more up there.

DIS - Trend Line Break - Go Short

2007-02-12T20:41:00.001-07:00

Symbol: DIS
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

DIS is in the retail and entertainment sector and put out earnings a few days back. After an initial push higher that morning it proceeded to sell off and did so for three days on significant volume. Today's push on the DJIA picked this one up and carried it higher.

If you look at the relationship between the volume and price, you can see that this is setting up a bearish wedge on the retrace as volume is lighter on the way back up than on the way down. If we don't fail immediately here at the first resistance points, we most likely will do so as we get back to the trend line break area and that second day down on heavy volume. This is a very nice short setup.

GG - Short Term Trend - Go Long

2007-02-12T20:41:00.000-07:00

Symbol: GG
[X] Addition
Duration: Intermediate Term
Direction: Go Long

GG is in the metals sector and is starting to show promise again. I added a little more today as the pull back comes on no volume. I continue to like this sector and continue to buy stocks that individually come in a bit on weakness. Today was another chance to add a little here. It's got to overcome that down day of 1/3/07 still but with volume build up like this one is showing, once that swing point is removed, only the highs remain as targets.

FSYS - Retrace - Go Long

2007-02-12T05:52:00.000-07:00

Symbol: FSYS
[X] Add to existing position
Duration: Intermediate to Long Term
Direction: Go Long

FSYS is in the automobile parts sector and continues to have a nice run. It seems to be building strength to take out the old highs. The last spike up touched the previous high but there wasn't enough volume to take it out so we come back down again. Note how the swing point breaks higher are accompanied with good volume while the retraces show low volume? That's a very good sign and one that you look for searching for an entry. It creates the lowest risk entry if you can time it correctly. The low $22 area is a great point for an entry here on FSYS if you are not in or looking to add to an existing position as I am. This is a longer term play for me so I'll give it room all the way back to the high 19's on a stop looking to add soon at the $22 area and if it fails and comes in further but still with lower volume, again at the $20+ area.

VSEA - Retrace - Go Short

2007-02-06T19:14:00.002-07:00

Symbol: VSEA
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

VSEA is another stock in the chip sector and reported disappointing earnings a little over a week ago where it made a big gap down on huge volume. Today it started getting close enough for a retest of that breakdown area and I expect it will fail. With a large short interest you have to be careful to stop out if wrong. Institutional holders big on both sides of the trade. Could trade all the way back to the $36-$37 area if the retest and break the lows.

TSM - Retrace - Go Short

2007-02-06T19:14:00.001-07:00

Symbol: TSM
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

TSM is in the chip sector and reported disappointing earnings a little over a week ago. Today it retested that breakdown area and failed. With risk just over the 11.30 high of today, TSM offers a great risk/reward play. It was unable to get any kind of volume into the retest and now is most likely going to head back down to test the 10.42 low of January.

KO - Trend Line Break - Go Long

2007-02-06T19:14:00.000-07:00

Symbol: KO
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate to Long Term
Direction: Go Long

KO is in the retail sector and has, at this point, clearly broken a seven plus year down trend line that dates back to the late 1990's and on a monthly basis it did it with conviction when it jumped $45 per share back in October of 2006. There now are some good support levels below this area and although this will not likely be a zoom type stock, it should be a steady trudge higher as it looks to overcome the various resistance levels that have been built up over the years. The idea is to buy and ride, sell most and repurchase as long as it continues to perform. This is a safer play that can be looked at longer term.

TXN - Resistance - Go Short

2007-02-05T14:45:00.000-07:00

Symbol: TXN
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

TXN is in the chip sector and has put in quite a run since that gap up Jan 23rd but today it ran right into an area that will require quite a bit more strength to get through; and it did it without taking a break now for 2 weeks which say pull back. Risk is over the tops of high bar at $32 while reward is back to $30.5 to $31 at worst.

PHO - Breakout - Go Long

2007-02-04T19:59:00.000-07:00

Symbol: PHO
[X] Entry
Duration: Intermediate to Long Term
Direction: Go Long

A couple years back, a long time reader mentioned the desire to go long plays on water. We looked around and found some individual stocks but never did anything with the idea. With the proliferation of ETFs nowadays, it's hard not to find an ETF in many sectors. PHO is such an ETF and plays in the water sector. Technically it has just broken out and I began a position on the break Friday. If you pull up a weekly chart, you can see big volume on this breakout. It is a bit extended and it's likely there will be trades back down into the $18.50ish range, I like to start a position and add to it when I'm looking at an intermediate to long term time frame. The desire is, of course, to build a position of reasonable size over time. Given that we are longing a sector where risk is spread across several stocks in the sector the individual stock risk is mitigated to a great degree and it's really just sector risk along with the general market direction risk.

Given my time frame on this trade, I wouldn't consider the chart shaky unless the $17.81 swing point is taken out and bearish if $17 were to give way on volume. Otherwise, this looks like a sector that we should attempt to accumulate over time.