USO - Trend Line Resistance - Go Short

Symbol: EMN
[X] Entry
Duration: Short Term
Direction: Go Short

USO is the ETF for crude oil and it has confounded most here of late with it's continued drive higher. Another little spurt higher tomorrow or Wednesday (oil inventory numbers come out each Wednesday) could set the table for a good short term trading opportunity on the short side. I'm always looking for opportunities where the risk is reasonably small as compared to the potential reward. I believe that oil is nearing a point where we could get a more serious turn north once more and the question is whether it's here and now or a little bit further down the road.

I don't purport to know that but I do know when I see a good probability play. In this chart I see a relatively low volume push higher that, once it crossed the even $50 level it has refuse to crumble. Odds are that it want to test/touch the high of that down bar of 1/3/07 at $51.42. If volume picks up and/or if it can close above the high, that would negate the setup. If, however, that doesn't occur and we close back under the $51.42 level, I believe that we have a very good risk/reward play. A retest of the $48 level should be in the cards on such a failure.